New Commercial Airplane Market:

A 2.1 Trillion Investment Opportunity

Commercial aviation is poised for solid gains over the next 20 years. Affordable fares and the rising availability of convenient, point-to-point service will spur worldwide passenger traffic growth. Air traffic is projected to grow one and two-thirds times as rapidly as global gross domestic product. The growing demand for air transport will create a requirement for 25,700 new commercial airplanes by the year 2024. About 15,300 of these will be single-aisle airplanes. The workhorses of the commercial aviation fleet, these smaller airplanes serve regional markets and are the mainstay of the rapidly growing low-cost airlines.

Although the growth of point-to-point travel will help reduce congestion at major hubs, the requirement for single-aisle jetliners will remain strong. Airlines will enlist these smaller planes to expand into new nonstop markets and to increase flight frequencies on popular domestic and short-haul international routes.

Mid-size twin-aisle airplanes, such as the Boeing 777 and 787, represent the largest dollar share of the market.

Together, they account for 45% of the value of total new airplane sales over the next 20 years. These airplanes will increasingly move into long-haul markets, supplementing and sometimes replacing larger airplanes, as well as enabling airlines to create new long-distance nonstop markets and increase frequencies in existing markets. This trend, already well-established in trans-Atlantic markets, is making rapid gains across the Pacific and Europe-Asia routes.

In Europe and North America, mid-size twin-aisle airplanes will play a crucial role in busy domestic and middle-distance international markets. The most heavily traveled routes will reach optimum frequency and outgrow single-aisle airplanes. Mid-size twin-aisle airplanes are also in high demand for shorter, high-density routes within Asia.

Together, single-aisle jetliners and mid-size twin-aisle airplanes account for about 84% of the $2.1 trillion total value of commercial airplane sales over the next 20 years.

The largest commercial airplanes, those carrying 400 seats and above, represent only 3% of projected airplane purchases. Including freighters, this will amount to about 900 airplanes during the forecast period.

Accounting for roughly 11% of the total new airplane dollar value, the large airplane market is divided into two segments—airplanes with up to about 500 seats (roughly corresponding to the Boeing 747 in size) and airplanes larger than 500 seats. Total projected orders in this market segment will be divided about equally between 747-size airplanes and airplanes with more than 500 seats.